Anil Kumble has always been a master of turn but even he had a hard time spinning a convincing argument that India could beat Australia in their four-Test series. They have the motivation - five or more of their champion veterans are desperate for success on what will almost certainly be their last tour of Australia - but how do you defeat a team that has not lost a home Test series since 1992-93?
Kumble's men arrived in Melbourne eight days ahead of the Boxing Day Test and the captain spent his first press conference trying to persuade the media that India could break that spell. He ticked off the reasons India would be a threat, then found just as many causes for his own side to be concerned about Australia's power. He chose his words carefully, which was not surprising for a man who has heard the spin from his captaincy predecessors on visits to Australia, and has seen the results.
Fittingly, his major argument revolved around spin, which he declared as Australia's biggest weakness. Shane Warne was proving difficult to replace, he said, and India's batsmen would not mind facing up to a third-choice slow bowler with Stuart MacGill unavailable. "If the wickets help spin, then definitely we have the advantage," Kumble said. "It will definitely help us if it turns in Melbourne and Sydney."
Brad Hogg is in Australia's 12-man squad but may yet be squeezed out if a four-man pace attack is favoured. Hogg was impressive in the recent ODI series against India, although Kumble said facing him in a Test match would be a completely different scenario.
Kumble brightened when he mulled over Australia's double-loss of Warne and Glenn McGrath. Then he remembered that neither of them played last time India toured Australia in 2003-04, when Warne was enduring his drugs ban and McGrath had an ankle injury.
"It definitely gives you a bit of confidence," he said. "But having said that the last time around when we played here Glenn was injured and Warney was not there, so ..." His voice trailed off. If Kumble is a man who sees the glass as half-full, the sentence might have finished with "and we didn't lose". If his glass is half-empty, the thought could have been "no Warne, no McGrath and we still couldn't beat them."
India did play well on that visit, securing a 1-1 draw and Kumble saw no reason that their style of play should change this time around. But he was careful not to make any predictions that would come back to bite him.
"Most of the senior cricketers probably are here on their last tour to Australia, so it's very important that we go back victorious. But not many people come here and go back victorious," he said. "We know that Australia is a tough opposition and I think we have the experience and the quality to go out there and do our best."
Exactly how much experience and quality India will put on the field in the first Test is still up in the air. Virender Sehwag was a late addition to the squad and they are also keen to play Yuvraj Singh - if they can find a place for him in their strong batting line-up. Kumble was not concerned about chopping and changing an order that had been successful against England and Pakistan, although he was still unsure who would get a run in their only warm-up game, a three-day encounter against Victoria at the Junction Oval starting on Thursday.
Kumble was at least confident that India's recent Test series victories against England and Pakistan had prepared them well, whereas Australia have had only two Tests against Sri Lanka since their Ashes triumph in 2006-07. "Australia is always tough whether they've played enough cricket or not," he said. "[But] in that sense, we are pretty well prepared."
Squad Wasim Jaffer, Virender Sehwag, Dinesh Karthik, Rahul Dravid, Sachin Tendulkar, Sourav Ganguly, VVS Laxman, Yuvraj Singh, Mahendra Singh Dhoni (wk), Anil Kumble (capt), Harbhajan Singh, Zaheer Khan, RP Singh, Irfan Pathan, Ishant Sharma, Pankaj Singh.
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